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Heat pumps as a share of heating permits, in the towns whose records can answer

Of 31 Massachusetts municipal sources in this dataset, only 10 keep records capable of answering a simple question: when a household replaces its heating system, is the replacement a heat pump? In those 10 towns, across 499 heating permits, the answer is 35.5%.

The disqualification is the story. Three of the largest sources here - Worcester, Cambridge, Lexington - had to be excluded, and the reason is worth more than the ranking. They file fossil-fuel heating work under a fixed category label instead of a description. Search their text for "boiler" or "furnace" and you find almost nothing; search it for "heat pump" and you find everything. Ranked naively, Lexington comes out at 100% heat pump and Worcester at 0%. Both numbers are false, and both are about filing conventions rather than heating.

35.5%
heat-pump share, pooled
10/31
sources able to answer
499
heating permits measured
2.3x
spread, highest to lowest town

The towns whose records can answer

Randolph leads at 46.7% of heating permits; West Bridgewater sits at 20.0%. That is a 2.3x spread between towns in the same state under the same building code and the same rebate program - which is the genuinely interesting result, and a much smaller number than an ungated analysis would have produced.

TownHeating permitsHeat pumpShare
Randolph602846.7%
Mansfield753344.0%
Hingham351542.9%
Milton662639.4%
Falmouth501734.0%
Hanson301033.3%
Braintree611829.5%
Taunton411229.3%
Rockland511223.5%
West Bridgewater30620.0%

The towns whose records cannot

These sources carry 462 heating permits between them - more than the entire eligible sample - and none of it is usable for this question. The "distinctness" column is the test: it is the fraction of a town's gas-fitting permits carrying a distinct description. At 0.01, a town is filing nearly every gas job under the same handful of words.

TownHeating permitsWould have reportedDescription distinctness
Worcester3050.0%0.01
Cambridge10587.6%0.06
Lexington52100.0%0.01

A source is eligible only if its gas-fitting permits carry distinct descriptions on at least 50% of rows, and it has at least 20 classified heating permits. Nobody working from a single town's data could discover that their own records are unable to answer this - it only shows up by comparing description entropy across towns.

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How this was measured

Question

In Massachusetts towns whose permit records describe the work, what share of heating-system permits are heat pumps?

Rows used

Rows whose description is at least 8 characters, matched against two rules. Heat pump: heat\s*pump|mini[\s-]?split|minisplit|ductless|\bashp\b. Fossil fuel: \bfurnace(s)?\b|\bboiler(s)?\b|forced hot air|\bgas heat\b|oil burner. Heat pump wins a tie. 499 rows classified across eligible sources.

Sources included

10 sources, each with at least 20 classified heating permits and gas-permit description distinctness of at least 0.50.

Sources excluded, and why

3 sources carrying 462 heating permits, named in the table above with the distinctness figure that disqualified each. A further 18 sources had too few classified heating rows to rank and are not listed, because a share computed on a handful of rows is noise.

Known limitation

Description text is a proxy for the appliance actually installed. A permit reading 'replace heating system' with no further detail is counted in neither direction, and a town that describes heat pumps more enthusiastically than boilers would shift its own number.

Evidence

Computed 2026-08-18 from a dataset fetched 2026-08-18. Download the figures behind this page (JSON).

Questions

What share of Massachusetts heating permits are heat pumps?

In the 10 towns whose records can answer, 35.5% of 499 heating-system permits are heat pumps, mini-splits or ductless systems. Town-level shares run from 20.0% to 46.7%.

Why are Worcester, Cambridge and Lexington excluded?

Those towns file fossil-fuel heating work under a fixed category label rather than a description, so a text search finds their heat pumps but not their boilers. Including them would have reported one town at 100% heat pump and another at 0%, both false.

Is this the same as statewide adoption?

No. It is the heat-pump share of permits in ten towns whose records are legible for this question, and those towns were selected by record quality rather than by being representative of Massachusetts.

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